Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley compete for the lead underwriting position in OpenAI and Anthropic's IPO, with potential earnings exceeding $7 billion

According to Fortune, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are competing for the lead underwriter position for the future IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic. Previously, Goldman Sachs secured the lead underwriter role for the SpaceX IPO, which is expected to take place on June 12. Both OpenAI and Anthropic's IPOs are expected to raise at least $60 billion, totaling over $120 billion.

Jay Ritter, an IPO expert from the University of Florida, stated that the investment bank that secures the lead underwriter position will determine how much IPO stock allocation each fund receives, thus potentially earning far more than other underwriters. Ritter noted that institutional investors often pay a significant amount of "soft dollars" to lead underwriters to secure more IPO allocations, which refers to the portion of trading commissions that exceeds the actual execution costs.

If it is still uncertain whether Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley will secure the lead underwriter position for OpenAI and Anthropic, funds may simultaneously direct more trading commissions to both investment banks to increase their chances of receiving allocations. For example, in the case of the SpaceX IPO, if the fundraising scale reaches $86 billion, the underwriting fee would be approximately $600 million. However, if the stock price rises by 20% on the first day, the paper gains for IPO investors would exceed $17 billion, and Ritter estimates that at least 30% of that could flow back to the investment bank in the form of soft dollars, about $5 billion, far exceeding the underwriting fee itself.

If both OpenAI and Anthropic see a 20% increase on their first day of trading, the paper gains for investors would reach $24 billion. Based on the same ratio, investment banks could potentially receive over $7 billion in soft dollars, most of which would flow to the lead underwriter. Currently, both OpenAI and Anthropic have secretly submitted draft registration statements, but the listing dates have not yet been determined.